US Considers Iran Ground Invasion: Scenarios, Challenges, and the Complexities of Proxy Warfare

As the United States reportedly threatens a ground invasion of Iran, questions arise regarding the operation's objectives and geographical scope. While some scenarios suggest a focus on Gulf islands, others explore collaboration with local insurgent groups. Initial attempts to leverage Iran's internal ethnic divisions, particularly among its Kurdish minority, have encountered significant hurdles.

Early Strategies and Setbacks in Proxy Warfare

Early in the conflict, the US administration reportedly considered supporting opposition groups from Iran’s large Kurdish minority to instigate a proxy war. However, these efforts faced considerable challenges. Reports from Israeli media indicate that initial operations by Mossad to encourage attacks by Kurdish groups in Iran’s northwest faltered due to "leaks and distrust." This led Iran to fortify its defenses in the region and exert pressure on authorities in Iraqi Kurdistan, where Iranian Kurdish groups are based.

Last week, US President Donald Trump confirmed in a Fox News interview that the United States had provided weapons to Kurdish groups. While further action involving Kurdish or other ethnic opposition groups remains a possibility, the administration is reportedly seeking an exit strategy from the conflict, raising questions about the efficacy of inciting local insurgencies to weaken Tehran.

Iran's Internal Vulnerabilities and Ethnic Tensions

Exploiting ethnic or religious tensions is a long-standing military tactic, frequently employed by the US in the Middle East. President Trump may view Iran's internal fractures as an opportunity to gain leverage and stretch Tehran's military capabilities. Over the past three decades, Iran has struggled to address the escalating grievances of various minority populations in its peripheral regions. Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Balochis report feeling marginalized in the Shi’a majority state, while Arab and Kurdish Shia Muslims also express discrimination by ethnic Persians.

This discontent has fueled numerous anti-government mobilizations, including armed insurrections. Kurdish armed groups, based in Iraq, have been active for decades in northwestern Iran. Kurdish areas also experienced widespread protests, most recently in autumn 2022 following the death of a Kurdish woman at the hands of morality police in Tehran. Other groups have also launched significant attacks: in 2018, an Arab separatist group claimed responsibility for an attack on a military parade in Ahvaz that killed 29 people. In 2019, Baluchi rebels of the Jaish Al Adl group attacked an IRGC bus, killing 27. The same group killed 11 security personnel in a 2023 raid on a police station. More recently, a 2024 bombing of a mourner’s procession for General Qasem Sulaimani in Kerman killed at least 90, with ISIL claiming responsibility.

These incidents highlight weaknesses in Iran’s periphery, which adversaries have historically attempted to exploit. Should the Trump administration pursue this path, it faces the lessons learned from past attempts to destabilize Tehran through ethno-religious insurgencies.

Historical Failures in Fomenting Rebellion

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein notably attempted this strategy when invading Iran in 1980, perceiving opportunity in the ethnic unrest among Kurds and Arabs that the newly formed Islamic Republic had inherited. Iraq provided arms and finances to the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran (KDP-I), enabling it to briefly control territory. However, internal conflicts and a brutal campaign by Iran's Revolutionary Guards suppressed the rebellion by 1982-83. Saddam also sought to incite revolt among southern Arabs, with some Iranian Arab separatist groups fighting alongside Iraqi forces. Yet, the Sunni Arab community largely did not join, and Shi’a Arabs resisted what they saw as a foreign invasion by a Sunni-dominated Iraqi regime, preventing the mass uprising Saddam desired.

Two decades later, US President George W. Bush pursued a similar playbook, authorizing the CIA and other intelligence agencies to conduct covert operations and funnel resources to opposition armed groups in Iran. Like Saddam, Bush failed to foment significant rebellions. This outcome stemmed not only from the Islamic Republic's ability to manage security situations swiftly but also because efforts to incite uprisings lacked sufficient momentum. The complexity of Iran’s ethno-religious identities and socio-economic realities, where parts of its minority populations are well-integrated into the nation's core, hindered a simplistic narrative of ethnic oppression by the Persian majority.

The Likelihood of Success Today

More than a month into the ongoing conflict with Iran, US and Israeli efforts to trigger a mass uprising by decapitating the regime have reportedly failed. Currently, there is little to suggest that attempts to foment ethnic insurgencies would yield greater success. US-Israeli support for separatist groups is unlikely to extend beyond localized acts of sabotage or minor skirmishes.

Such actions would likely not divert significant military resources from Iran's techno-guerrilla warfare, which heavily relies on missiles and drones rather than ground troops. Furthermore, significant regional opposition exists among major US allies, including Pakistan and Turkiye, concerning support for separatist groups. Islamabad grapples with its own violent attacks by Baloch separatists, while Ankara views any support for Kurdish groups as highly sensitive due to its history of unrest in Kurdish regions. Iraq would also be reluctant to facilitate such activities, with the government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government unlikely to risk Iranian retaliation by permitting US-Israeli support for Iranian Kurds on Iraqi territory.

Inciting ethnic insurgencies, while potentially appealing in theory, appears to be another risky strategy for the Trump administration, already contending with numerous challenges in its conflict with Iran.

Olley News Insight: The strategy of exploiting internal ethnic and religious divisions within a rival nation, while historically appealing to external powers, frequently encounters complex local dynamics that undermine its effectiveness. Iran's history demonstrates a nuanced internal landscape resistant to simple divisions.

Key Takeaways

  • The US is reportedly considering a ground invasion of Iran, with scenarios including targeting islands or supporting local insurgent groups.
  • Early US and Israeli attempts to instigate a proxy war via Iranian Kurdish groups reportedly failed due to leaks and distrust.
  • President Trump acknowledged providing weapons to Kurdish groups, but the efficacy of this strategy is questioned.
  • Iran has internal ethnic and religious divisions that external powers have historically tried to exploit, but with limited success.
  • Past efforts by Saddam Hussein and George W. Bush to foment rebellions in Iran by supporting minority groups largely failed due to complex internal realities and Iranian security responses.
  • Current prospects for inciting widespread ethnic insurgencies in Iran are considered low, unlikely to significantly impact Iran's military strategy.
  • Key regional allies like Pakistan, Turkiye, and Iraq oppose external support for separatist groups in Iran due to their own security concerns and potential retaliation.