Hormuz at a Crossroads: Regional Leaders Urged to Forge New Security Order Amid Escalating Conflict

The Strait of Hormuz is at a critical juncture as the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran reshapes the geopolitical landscape of the region. With Washington reportedly seeking an exit strategy from its latest Middle Eastern entanglement, the littoral states of Hormuz are presented with a unique opportunity to establish a new, locally managed security architecture, thereby elevating their regional and global economic significance.

US and Israel's War of Choice Escalates Regional Tensions

The conflict initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran has fundamentally altered the geopolitical status quo. Reports indicate that the US administration, under President Donald Trump, is increasingly looking for a political off-ramp from what is described as another Middle Eastern quagmire.

Hormuz States Hold Key to Regional Stability

The nations bordering the Strait of Hormuz have a collective opportunity to offer President Trump an exit strategy. By proactively designing a new, regionally controlled security framework for the Strait, these states can significantly boost their strategic importance in both regional geopolitics and the global economy. Failure to act risks a prolonged conflict, ultimately leading to a new regional order unilaterally imposed by Tehran.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states appear to be navigating a difficult path, caught between the considerable costs and unpredictable reactions of confronting an erratic US leadership, and the risk of being perceived by Iran as passive participants in the aggression, making them potential targets under Iran's evolving military doctrine.

Limits of US Security Patronage Exposed

The current reality underscores the limitations of US security patronage, especially given what appears to be an unconditional alliance with Israel where Israeli interests are increasingly prioritised over American ones in the region. This dynamic suggests the existing status quo is unsustainable. A new order is inevitable, as continued escalation will worsen conditions for all regional states. The previous scenario, where Iran was targeted while the GCC remained unaffected, as seen in the June 2025 conflict, is no longer viable.

Iran's strategic leverage is immense, demonstrated by its capacity to disrupt maritime traffic using cost-effective drones that can be produced clandestinely and launched from various locations. Iranian officials have clearly stated their intent to utilise this capability to forge a new order for Hormuz.

Navigating Iran-GCC Relations Amidst Setbacks

Relations between Iran and the GCC states have historically experienced fluctuations, moving from prolonged hostility post-1979 to a significant positive transformation in recent years. However, recent Iranian attacks on military and economic infrastructure within GCC states, coupled with the expulsion of Iranian diplomats from some GCC capitals, represent a severe regression.

This crisis, however, highlights security as a collective good, proving that one state's insecurity destabilises the entire region. A security architecture built at the expense of a neighbour is no longer feasible. While Iran has begun dismantling the former order, the emerging framework does not have to be exclusively Iranian in its design.

Drawing Inspiration from European Regional Order

For a constructive path forward, regional states can look to Europe's historical successes in establishing regional order. Examples range from the Congress of Vienna, which brought stability after Napoleon's aggressive wars, to the gradual economic, political, and security integration following World War II. These milestones offer inspiration rather than direct templates for the region.

Addressing Hormuz's Legal Anomaly

The Strait of Hormuz suffers from a unique legal void, being one of the few critical maritime arteries globally without a dedicated international regulatory treaty. Unlike key passages such as the Bosporus and Dardanelles, whose stability is partly secured by the Montreux Convention, Hormuz operates without a codified maritime framework. This absence has historically made it vulnerable to superpower impositions and is, to some extent, a contributing factor to the current conflict.

Proposing a "Congress for Hormuz"

Convening a "Congress for Hormuz" could empower regional states to collectively design a security architecture, fill this existing legal vacuum, and ensure stability not only for the region but also for the global economy. The ultimate goal of such a platform would be the codification of a treaty formalising the strait's status, providing legal certainty, and asserting local prerogative over Hormuz's management, thereby elevating the strategic weight of regional states.

In the short term, this framework could facilitate the reopening of the strait, providing President Trump with a viable exit strategy by allowing him to claim success through his regional allies. Long-term, this framework would shield GCC countries from a patron willing to compromise international law and regional stability for the benefit of its principal ally, Israel – an ally that regional states cannot replace or compete with.

The Imperative for Regional Action

The future of Hormuz must rest in the hands of its inhabitants, not external superpowers exploiting and destabilising it for their own or Israel's interests. While a multilateral platform and a formal treaty represent the ideal path to long-term stability, the current conflict against Iran makes the emergence of a new order a non-negotiable necessity for Tehran.

Should the GCC states choose to prioritise the demands of their Western allies over regional integration, a decision likely to prolong the conflict and impose costs on all sides, Iran will undoubtedly proceed to establish this new order unilaterally. Such an imposed framework, born of strategic necessity rather than consensus, would significantly diminish the prospects for shared peace, regional stability, and collective prosperity, representing a lost opportunity.

The GCC states are now faced with a crucial decision: to become architects of this new regional era or remain passive observers.

Key Takeaways

  • The ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran has destabilised the region, prompting the US to seek an exit.
  • Hormuz littoral states have a unique opportunity to create a local security architecture for the Strait.
  • The GCC faces a dilemma: avoid confronting the US while not being seen as complicit by Iran.
  • The limits of US security patronage, particularly its alignment with Israeli interests, render the current status quo unsustainable.
  • Iran possesses significant leverage to reshape the Hormuz order, using advanced drone capabilities.
  • A "Congress for Hormuz" is proposed to establish a dedicated international regulatory treaty for the Strait.
  • This initiative offers a short-term off-ramp for the US and long-term protection for GCC states.
  • GCC states must decide whether to proactively shape the new regional order or risk a unilaterally imposed framework by Iran.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.